Fisher information geometry and optimal experimental design, simulation-based calibration and coverage, and refusal contracts that decline false precision for unconstrained parameters.
Readiness
Far alongFar along · substantively validated
What's working
PreliminaryThe Telescope Adds Ten Pounds.Unresolved binaries inflate the observed velocity dispersion (a). A binary-blind fit turns that orbital motion into 2.9 times the true cluster mass — while forecasting 4.5% precision, a bias 42 times its own error bar. The control isolates the cause; binary-aware inference recovers both mass and binary fraction (b). Then the design question: a mass-first allocation buys 6.9% mass precision but leaves a 40% blind spot, while a degeneracy-first design halves that blind spot for two points of mass precision (c). Truth-known experiment, 96 mocks.
What's coming
Methods paper planned. It will establish the identifiability workflow: detect false confidence, repair the model, and redesign the observation.
